Musselburgh 15:00 — Value Analysis

Mr & Mrs McKinlay Wedding Anniversary Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 21 July 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GTF 16.0f Class 5 2 runners
Model's most likely ARRANGE 82% model chance · market —
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates ARRANGE top (82% chance)

Our figures strongly back this runner's standout record at this level and pattern of beating most rivals. A 29-day break suits its youth and improvement trajectory, yet the jockey-trainer combination's history (0%) and last run's poor showing cloud the picture.

  • ✓ Record at this level stands out
  • ✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time
  • ✕ Jockey-trainer pairing rarely clicks (0%)

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ARRANGE ★ Top Rated
J: David Nolan · T: Martin Todhunter
82%
—
—
 —
2
MAX OF STARS
J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(5) · T: Ollie Pears
18%
—
—
 —

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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