Catterick 14:07 — Value Analysis

Download The Raceday Ready App Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)

Wednesday 22 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 7.0f Class 4 11 runners

🏁 Result: Missouri Waltz won (SP 6.5)

Model's most likely HAVANA COURT 28% model chance · market 14%

★ Best value HAVANA COURT model 28% vs market 14% · +99%

How the race unfolded

Missouri Waltz (11/2) came out on top, winning by a length. Aljoon (6/1) filled second. The exchange briefly made Aljoon the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.26 from 8.6 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Freshwater, the 2/1 favourite, could manage only 5th. Our model's top pick HAVANA COURT (28%) finished 9th.

Why the model rates HAVANA COURT top (28% chance)

Finished third last time when the yard was in form, winning at 16% in the fortnight, and having faced stronger opposition than most rivals here, he presents a rounded case despite the trip question.

✓ Yard in form - 16% winners in the fortnight
✓ Ran well last time - finished 3rd
✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
✕ Less consistent than the best of these
✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	HAVANA COURT ★ Top Rated J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Knight	28%	14%	7.0	+99%	9th
2	MACAU J: Andrew Mullen · T: Archie Watson	28%	23%	4.3	+23%	3rd
3	SARAS SILVER GIRL J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby	24%	12%	8.0	+91%	4th
4	ALJOON J: Jason Hart · T: Jack Jones	13%	22%	4.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-41%	2nd
5	BLACK FURY J: Cam Hardie · T: Ollie Pears	2%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-26%	6th
6	FRESHWATER J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara	2%	18%	5.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-88%	5th
7	MISSOURI WALTZ J: M. P. Sheehy · T: Adrian Keatley	1%	17%	6.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-94%	Winner
8	SCARLET DYNASTY J: Joanna Mason · T: Gemma Tutty	1%	1%	67.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-33%	8th
—	BAYSIDE WAY NR J: Harry Russell · T: Ollie Pears	0%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-74%	Withdrawn
9	HEY DOUGIE J: Aiden Brookes · T: Philip Kirby	0%	1%	151.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-24%	10th
10	TRADITTION J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby	0%	7%	15.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-92%	7th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org