Worcester 13:55 — Value Analysis

Widmer Handicap Steeple Chase (ARC Summer Chase Series Qualifier)

Wednesday 22 July 2026 · result below

Handicap Chase GD 20.0f Class 5 8 runners
🏁 Result: Holy Legend won (SP 3.0)
Model's most likely A LITTLE SOMETHING 40% model chance · market 27%
★ Best value A LITTLE SOMETHING model 40% vs market 27% · +49%
How the race unfolded

Holy Legend (2/1) ran out the winner, winning comfortably, by 4 lengths. Traveling Soldier (4/1) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Traveling Soldier the likely winner mid-race (matched at 2.00 from 5.9 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook.

Why the model rates A LITTLE SOMETHING top (40% chance)

Consistently beats most rivals here. Drops into easier company from a 96-rated field, has the ideal trip, and the 26% record this jockey-trainer share together support leading claims, though recent poor form and a burden of weight represent legitimate concerns.

  • ✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
  • ✓ Today's trip looks ideal
  • ✓ This jockey-trainer pairing wins 26% together
  • ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
A LITTLE SOMETHING ★ Top Rated
J: Ben Jones · T: Emma Lavelle
40%
27%
3.8
▲ Edge increasing
 +49% —
2
HOLY LEGEND
J: James Best · T: Alexandra Dunn
13%
35%
2.9
▼ Edge decreasing
 -64% Winner
3
CRACKERJACK QUEEN
J: Jack Andrews · T: T Ellis
10%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +4% 4th
—
DOYOUKNOWWHATIMEAN NR
J: Kevin Brogan · T: Gary Hanmer
10%
15%
6.5
 -32% Withdrawn
4
GREER HILL
J: William Shanahan(5) · T: Jennie Candlish
10%
13%
7.5
 -22% 3rd
5
TRAVELING SOLDIER
J: Sean Bowen · T: Olly Murphy
8%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -60% 2nd
6
KING OF THE STORY
J: Ben Poste · T: Polly Gundry
6%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +76% —
7
BOSKILL BORDEN
J: Shane Fenelon(5) · T: David Rees
2%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -66% —

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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