Sandown 13:55 — Value Analysis

Tony Linnett Memorial Handicap Stakes

Thursday 23 July 2026 · result below

Other Handicap nan 5.0f Class 4 7 runners
🏁 Result: Arry Up won (SP 3.25)
Model's most likely NEPTUNE LEGEND 35% model chance · market 9%
★ Best value NEPTUNE LEGEND model 35% vs market 9% · +290%
How the race unfolded

Arry Up (9/4) came from off the pace to lead late, winning by 2 lengths. Nogo's Dream (11/4) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Brave Nation the likely winner mid-race (matched at 5.10 from 20.0 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model's top pick NEPTUNE LEGEND (35%) finished 6th.

Why the model rates NEPTUNE LEGEND top (35% chance)
  • ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✓ Jockey riding well - 18% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today
  • ✕ Official mark below most of this field

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
NEPTUNE LEGEND ★ Top Rated
J: Ray Dawson · T: Tony Carroll
35%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +290% 6th
2
NOGOS DREAM
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Richard Hughes
25%
33%
3.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -24% 2nd
3
ARRY UP
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Rod Millman
15%
23%
4.3
 -35% Winner
4
CORRESPONDENCE
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Tony Carroll
13%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +25% 7th
5
HAVANA SMILE
J: Tom Queally · T: Gary & Josh Moore
12%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -3% 5th
6
SMART VISION
J: George Wood · T: Jessica Macey
11%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -47% 4th
7
BRAVE NATION
J: Kieren Fox · T: Michael Attwater
8%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +50% 3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org