Doncaster 14:10 — Value Analysis

British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Thursday 23 July 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GTF 7.0f Class 3 9 runners
🏁 Result: Jassas won (SP 2.5)
Model's most likely PEAK TRAM 22% model chance · market 2%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: JASSAS is the market favourite (2.4) but the model rates it only 8% vs the market's 42% — it may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

Jassas (3/2) had the answers when it counted, winning by 1.8 lengths. Narrjoo (4/1) filled second. The exchange briefly made Narrjoo the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.45 from 5.8 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model's top pick PEAK TRAM (22%) finished 6th.

Why the model rates PEAK TRAM top (22% chance)
  • ✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
  • ✓ Jockey riding well - 15% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✕ Hasn't faced much opposition yet
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
PEAK TRAM ★ Top Rated
J: David Egan · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
22%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 6th
2
KAITO
J: Jack Callan(3) · T: George Boughey
11%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 7th
3
MINO
J: Neil Callan · T: Marco Botti
10%
1%
67.0
 ⚠ market disagrees 5th
4
JASSAS
J: William Buick · T: Charlie Appleby
8%
42%
2.4
▲ Edge increasing
 -82% Winner
5
NIGHT STAR
J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon
6%
38%
2.6
▼ Edge decreasing
 -84% 3rd
6
NARRJOO
J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Simon & Ed Crisford
6%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -72% 2nd
7
LEAD THE SQUAD
J: Darragh Keenan · T: George Scott
4%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -62% 8th
8
HEY DUDE
J: Hope Regan(7) · T: Mark Loughnane
4%
0%
401.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 9th
9
MISTER WHIPPY
J: George Downing · T: Ed Walker
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +31% 4th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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