Sandown 14:25 — Value Analysis

Martin Densham & Peter Deal Memorial British EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

Thursday 23 July 2026 · result below

Maiden nan 7.0f Class 3 9 runners
🏁 Result: Zero Error won (SP 7.0)
Model's most likely HARBOUR PRINCE 24% model chance · market 1%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Zero Error (6/1) came from off the pace to lead late, winning in a photo. Thunder Home (14/1) filled second. The exchange briefly made Thunder Home the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.01 from 20.0 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. United Authority, the 9/4 favourite, could manage only 5th. Our model's top pick HARBOUR PRINCE (24%) finished 8th.

Why the model rates HARBOUR PRINCE top (24% chance)
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Hasn't faced much opposition yet

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
HARBOUR PRINCE ★ Top Rated
J: George Wood · T: James Horton
24%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 8th
2
THUNDER HOME
J: Rossa Ryan · T: James Horton
16%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +138% 2nd
3
ZERO ERROR
J: Jamie Spencer · T: John & Thady Gosden
8%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -20% Winner
4
UNITED AUTHORITY
J: James Doyle · T: Ralph Beckett
8%
29%
3.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -74% 5th
5
JINMAN
J: Ray Dawson · T: Roger Varian
7%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -66% 7th
6
DESERT SYMPHONY
J: Rob Hornby · T: Jim Boyle
6%
1%
101.0
 ⚠ market disagrees 9th
7
ON TARGET
J: Oisin Murphy · T: George Scott
6%
25%
4.0
 -76% 6th
8
SOMERTON
J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hannon
5%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -68% 3rd
9
NEW OXFORD
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Harry Charlton
5%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -38% 4th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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