Uttoxeter 13:40 — Value Analysis

Chloe Mediumship Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)

Friday 24 July 2026 · result below

Novice Hurdle GD 16.0f Class 4 13 runners

🏁 Result: Whermyrosemarygoes won (SP 17.0)

Model's most likely TROUVILLE 35% model chance · market 44%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

How the race unfolded

Whermyrosemarygoes sprang a 16/1 surprise, winning comfortably, by 3 lengths. Likewhatyousee (3/2) filled second. The exchange briefly made Biggles the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.32 from 5.8 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Trouville, the 11/10 favourite, could manage only 4th. Our model's top pick TROUVILLE (35%) finished 4th.

Why the model rates TROUVILLE top (35% chance)

✓ Preferred to Likewhatyousee, a proven winner at this class and better suited by the trip
✓ Sean Bowen riding well, 24% strike rate in the fortnight
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✕ Olly Murphy's yard quiet lately, 8% in the fortnight
✕ Little to like about its run three runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	TROUVILLE ★ Top Rated J: Sean Bowen · T: Olly Murphy	35%	44%	2.2	-22%	4th
2	LIKEWHATYOUSEE J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr. · T: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill	23%	40%	2.5	-43%	2nd
3	BIGGLES J: Stan Sheppard · T: Tom Lacey	11%	23%	4.3	-51%	5th
4	LETMESEETHECOLTS J: Nathan Moscrop · T: Brian Ellison	8%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+184%	3rd
5	COOL MILLION J: Harry Kimber · T: Faye Bramley	6%	1%	81.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	12th
6	DON DE LA FRONTERA J: Jonathan Burke · T: Toby Bulgin	6%	1%	67.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+277%	9th
7	AMALFINA J: Jack Hogan · T: D J Jeffreys	4%	1%	101.0	⚠ market disagrees	7th
8	MISS THE STING J: Lee Edwards · T: Charles & Adam Pogson	4%	0%	251.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	—
9	BAILEYS LUCK J: Ben Poste · T: Clare Hobson	4%	0%	301.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	11th
10	PEARL KNOT J: Toby Wynne · T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	3%	1%	126.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	⚠ market disagrees	8th
11	TRACKER ISSUE J: Ryan Mania · T: Adam Nicol	3%	1%	126.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+286%	6th
12	ZEROUALI J: Shane Quinlan(3) · T: Ben Lund	2%	0%	301.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	10th
13	WHERMYROSEMARYGOES J: Harry Cobden · T: Faye Bramley	2%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-76%	Winner

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org