Thirsk 14:00 — Value Analysis

Sky Bet Go-Racing-In-Yorkshire Summer Festival EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Friday 24 July 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GD 7.0f Class 3 7 runners

🏁 Result: Martinet won (SP 9.0)

Model's most likely DIPLOMATA 24% model chance · market 23%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: DIAMOND NEW BAY is the market favourite (1.7) but the model rates it only 6% vs the market's 58% — it may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

Martinet (8/1) came out on top, winning comfortably, by 3 lengths. Love Tanya (20/1) filled second. Diamond New Bay, the 5/8 favourite, could manage only 4th.

Why the model rates DIPLOMATA top (24% chance)

✓ Rossa Ryan and William Haggas win 67% together
✓ Rossa Ryan riding well, 18% strike rate in the fortnight
✓ Young improver with scope
✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
✕ First run for 72 days - fitness to prove

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
—	LITTLE LADY KAREN NR J: Sam James · T: K. R. Burke	39%	23%	4.3	+67%	Withdrawn
1	DIPLOMATA ★ Top Rated J: Rossa Ryan · T: William Haggas	24%	23%	4.3 ▼ Edge decreasing	+3%	5th
2	LOVE TANYA J: Ryan Sexton · T: Edward Bethell	12%	5%	19.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+123%	2nd
3	SKYGLOW J: Jason Hart · T: James Horton	7%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+178%	6th
4	MARTINET J: Jack Gilligan · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt	7%	11%	9.5	-37%	Winner
5	DIAMOND NEW BAY J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke	6%	58%	1.7	-90%	4th
6	ISABELLA DE VEGA J: George Downing · T: Ed Walker	5%	13%	7.5	-61%	3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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