Uttoxeter 14:10 — Value Analysis

Bridal Rooms Uttoxeter Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)

Friday 24 July 2026 · result below

Handicap Hurdle GD 16.0f Class 5 11 runners
🏁 Result: Ashdown Forest won (SP 1.83)
Model's most likely ALSHADHIAN 22% model chance · market 10%
★ Best value VERSATILE model 15% vs market 9% · +70%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: ASHDOWN FOREST is the market favourite (1.8) but the model rates it only 8% vs the market's 55% — it may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

Ashdown Forest (5/6) produced the strongest finish in the race, winning by 1.2 lengths. Littletown Lad (12/1) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Iolaos Du Mou the likely winner mid-race (matched at 5.00 from 16.5 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model's top pick ALSHADHIAN (22%) finished 10th.

Why the model rates ALSHADHIAN top (22% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Versatile, better on the ground
  • ✓ Among the highest-rated in the race
  • ✓ Nicely in at the weights
  • ✕ Jack Tudor cold lately, 9% in the fortnight
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ALSHADHIAN ★ Top Rated
J: Jack Tudor · T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
22%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +123% 10th
2
VERSATILE
J: Alex Chadwick(3) · T: James Owen
15%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +70% 9th
3
AMERICAN EMPIRE
J: Theo Gillard · T: Donald McCain
13%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +66% 7th
4
COLINSKI
J: Charlie Maggs(3) · T: Rebecca Menzies
10%
5%
19.0
 +96% 6th
5
IOLAOS DU MOU
J: Tabitha Worsley · T: Tony Culhane & Stella Barclay
10%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +46% 3rd
6
ASHDOWN FOREST
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton
8%
55%
1.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -86% Winner
7
AUNTIE MAGGIE
J: Ciaran Gethings · T: Alastair Ralph
7%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -36% 4th
8
CHICAGO STORM
J: Lorcan Murtagh · T: F P Murtagh
6%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +201% 11th
9
HARRY GULLIVER
J: Bryan Carver · T: Alex Hales
5%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +30% 5th
10
LITTLETOWN LAD
J: Jonathan England · T: Sam England
4%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -46% 2nd
11
CAPTAIN CONNOR
J: Jamie Hamilton · T: Mark Walford
4%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -33% 8th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org