Ascot 13:10 — Value Analysis

Dentakay EBF Crocker Bulteel "Confined" Maiden Stakes (Not Run More Than Once)

Saturday 25 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 6.0f Class 2 9 runners

🏁 Result: Never Enough won (SP 2.38)

Model's most likely TUMISHI 28% model chance · market 13%

★ Best value TUMISHI model 28% vs market 13% · +113%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: NEVER ENOUGH is the market favourite (2.0) but the model rates it only 20% vs the market's 50% — it may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

Never Enough (11/8) raced prominently and found plenty when it mattered, winning by 1.5 lengths. Izuba (13/2) filled second. The exchange briefly made Izuba the likely winner mid-race (matched at 2.00 from 8.6 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model's top pick TUMISHI (28%) finished 3rd.

Why the model rates TUMISHI top (28% chance)

✓ Daniel Muscutt riding well, 14% strike rate in the last two months
✓ Well treated on official ratings
✓ Dropped in class since last time
✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	TUMISHI ★ Top Rated J: Daniel Muscutt · T: James Fanshawe	28%	13%	7.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+113%	3rd
2	NEVER ENOUGH J: William Buick · T: Ed Walker	20%	50%	2.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-60%	Winner
3	IZUBA J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding	10%	15%	6.5	-36%	2nd
4	SILENT SADHU J: Taylor Fisher · T: J. R. Jenkins	10%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+187%	8th
5	ASTRALITE J: Cieren Fallon · T: Harry Charlton	8%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+140%	5th
6	PERFECT STRIKE J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas	8%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-58%	7th
7	PUBLIC AFFECTION J: Jamie Spencer · T: Oliver Cole	7%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+57%	4th
8	CRAZEE IN HAVANA J: Charles Bishop · T: Eve Johnson Houghton	5%	8%	12.0	-34%	6th
9	AHOY J: David Egan · T: Dean Ivory	5%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+134%	9th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org