York 13:30 — Value Analysis

Sky Bet "Jump Jockeys' Nunthorpe" Handicap Stakes (To Be Ridden By Professional Jump Jockeys)

Saturday 25 July 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GTF 5.0f Class 4 17 runners

🏁 Result: Kodiac Thriller won (SP 9.5)

Model's most likely LETHAL NYMPH 19% model chance · market 22%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

How the race unfolded

Kodiac Thriller (17/2) produced the strongest finish in the race, winning by half a length. Sports Coach (9/2) filled second. The exchange briefly made Sports Coach the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.87 from 6.0 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model's top pick LETHAL NYMPH (19%) finished 8th.

Why the model rates LETHAL NYMPH top (19% chance)

✓ Preferred to Kodiac Thriller, better on the ground
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Well treated on official ratings
✕ Yet to be tested against much
✕ A well-exposed veteran

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	LETHAL NYMPH ★ Top Rated J: Jonathan Burke · T: Paul Midgley	19%	22%	4.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-14%	8th
2	KODIAC THRILLER J: Jamie Hamilton · T: Mark Walford	13%	11%	9.0	+15%	Winner
3	EMERALD HARMONY J: Jonathan England · T: Paul Midgley	10%	13%	7.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-23%	6th
4	MANAGING DIRECTOR J: Danny McMenamin · T: Geoff Oldroyd	10%	11%	9.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-8%	3rd
5	SPORTS COACH J: Sean Quinlan · T: Antony Brittain	8%	17%	6.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-51%	2nd
6	ALMATY STAR J: Charlie Todd · T: Robert Cowell	6%	4%	26.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+63%	16th
7	BAYRAAT J: Caoilin Quinn · T: Tom Tate	6%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-12%	12th
8	CAYMAN TAI J: Kevin Brogan · T: Richard Hannon	5%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+74%	5th
9	MON NA SLIEVE J: Brian Hughes · T: Kevin Ryan	4%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-76%	7th
10	ROBERTO CARO J: Sean Flanagan · T: Adrian Keatley	4%	5%	21.0	-15%	10th
11	TEES AGGREGATES J: Brendan Powell · T: Adrian Nicholls	4%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+51%	14th
12	VENTURA EXPRESS J: Tristan Durrell · T: Paul Midgley	4%	7%	15.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-45%	4th
13	CAMELEY DAYS J: James Best · T: Chris Dwyer	3%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+18%	13th
14	DREAM DEAL J: Richie McLernon · T: Tim Easterby	2%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-43%	15th
15	HARB J: Harry Reed · T: Tristan Davidson	2%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-8%	11th
16	KINGS CALL J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr. · T: Lawrence Mullaney	2%	7%	15.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-74%	9th
17	VINCE LAMOUR J: Dylan Johnston · T: Tim Easterby	1%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-25%	17th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org