Newcastle 13:35 — Value Analysis

John Duncan Brack Apprentice Handicap Stakes

Saturday 25 July 2026 · result below

Other Handicap STSL 10.0f Class 6 13 runners
🏁 Result: Bearwith won (SP 4.5)
Model's most likely TOKEN LOVE 19% model chance · market 18%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Bearwith (7/2) took the honours, winning comfortably, by 3 lengths. Sweet Kiss (10/1) filled second. The exchange briefly made Sweet Kiss the likely winner mid-race (matched at 4.60 from 12.5 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model's top pick TOKEN LOVE (19%) finished 3rd.

Why the model rates TOKEN LOVE top (19% chance)
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✓ Record at this level stands out
  • ✓ Race-fit - out just 8 days ago
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark
  • ✕ Aiden Brookes cold lately, 8% in the fortnight

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
TOKEN LOVE ★ Top Rated
J: Aiden Brookes · T: Micky Hammond
19%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +2% 3rd
2
GOLSPIE
J: Cian Horgan(3) · T: Patrick Morris
13%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -26% 6th
3
IDYLLIC
J: Paula Muir · T: Wilf Storey
12%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +32% 10th
4
NATURALIA
J: Shay Farmer(5) · T: Donald Whillans
11%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +68% 4th
5
BEARWITH
J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(3) · T: Harriet Bethell
9%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -54% Winner
6
MAPLE
J: Rhys Elliott(3) · T: Ruth Jefferson
8%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -49% 8th
7
SWEET KISS
J: Jake Dickson(5) · T: Tim Easterby
7%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -3% 2nd
8
RUBELLITE
J: Conor Whiteley(5) · T: Stephen Hanlon
6%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +7% 5th
9
EAGLES DREAM
J: Alex Jary · T: Tristan Davidson
5%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +70% 11th
10
GEMINI MAN
J: Cara Tuke(7) · T: Iain Jardine
4%
15%
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -71% 9th
11
JEWEL MAKER
J: Jack Nicholls · T: Tim Easterby
4%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +10% 7th
12
CAVALRY CALL
J: Donagh Murphy(5) · T: Patrick Morris
4%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +138% 13th
13
BROADSTONE
J: Matthew Lloyd Slater(5) · T: John Norton
2%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +193% 12th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org