Uttoxeter 14:12 — Value Analysis

QuinnBet Daily Free Bet Juvenile Hurdle Race (GBB Race)

Sunday 26 July 2026 · result below

Other Hurdle GD 16.0f Class 4 9 runners
🏁 Result: Hello Garda won (SP 41.0)
Model's most likely SALKADAN 29% model chance · market 29%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: VIETNORM is the market favourite (1.9) but the model rates it only 24% vs the market's 52% — it may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

Hello Garda rewarded anyone brave enough to take the 40/1, winning comfortably, by 3 lengths. Vietnorm (3/4) filled second. Vietnorm, the 3/4 favourite, could manage only 2nd. Our model's top pick SALKADAN (29%) finished 3rd.

Why the model rates SALKADAN top (29% chance)

Skelton's yard strikes 35 per cent in the last two months and Harry Skelton rides at 25 per cent in the fortnight; a proven performer at today's class or higher, though the trip and consistency are concerns.

  • ✓ Dan Skelton's yard in form, 35% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Harry Skelton riding well, 25% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✓ Dan Skelton readies first-timers, 16% with debutants
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SALKADAN ★ Top Rated
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton
29%
29%
3.5
 +0% 3rd
2
VIETNORM
J: Danny McMenamin · T: Adrian Keatley
24%
52%
1.9
▼ Edge decreasing
 -55% 2nd
3
ADBA
J: Harry Kimber · T: Faye Bramley
15%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +239% 6th
4
ZOOTER
J: Sean Bowen · T: Jack Jones
14%
20%
5.0
 -30% 4th
5
US OFFICER
J: Brendan Powell · T: Tom Dascombe
10%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +52% 5th
6
KEEP UNDER WRAPS
J: Jack Tudor · T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
10%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +128% 7th
7
HELLO GARDA
J: Paddy Hanlon(5) · T: John Joseph Hanlon
7%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +202% Winner
8
AL ZAAMA
J: Theo Gillard · T: Donald McCain
6%
2%
61.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +238% —
9
NICOLAI
J: Conor O'Farrell · T: Neil Mulholland
5%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +264% —

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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