Pontefract 14:30 — Value Analysis

Malcolm Prescott 80th Birthday Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

Sunday 26 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 8.0f Class 4 3 runners
🏁 Result: Asset won (SP 1.15)
Model's most likely ASSET 54% model chance · market 85%
★ Best value ALBEMAGIC model 27% vs market 20% · +35%
How the race unfolded

Asset justified strong market support at 1/6, winning by 1.5 lengths. Albemagic (4/1) chased him home. Our model made him its top pick at 54%.

Why the model rates ASSET top (54% chance)

Preferred to Albemagic with 75lb better in the weights and strong form at this level, though his winning credentials remain unproven; second last time out with the trip a question.

  • ✓ Preferred to Albemagic, 75lb better in at the weights
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
  • ✕ Unproven at this level
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ASSET ★ Top Rated
J: Luke Morris · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
54%
85%
1.2
 -37% Winner
2
ALBEMAGIC
J: Clifford Lee · T: Steph Hollinshead
27%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +35% 2nd
3
FELIZ NAVIDAD
J: David Nolan · T: David O'Meara
12%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +148% 3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org