Uttoxeter 14:42 — Value Analysis

Roys Ices Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race

Sunday 26 July 2026 · result below

Handicap Hurdle GD 16.0f Class 5 12 runners
🏁 Result: Northern Rose won (SP 4.33)
Model's most likely LADY FORTUNE 24% model chance · market 33%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Northern Rose (10/3) had the answers when it counted, winning by 1.5 lengths. Curious Mrs Fox (18/1) filled second. The exchange briefly made No Risk Today the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.30 from 5.6 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Lady Fortune, the 2/1 favourite, could manage only 10th. Our model's top pick LADY FORTUNE (24%) finished 10th.

Why the model rates LADY FORTUNE top (24% chance)

Proven here over this exact course and distance, with Brennan's yard at 16 per cent in the fortnight and form that stands out at this level; however, form figures leave much to find and last time was discouraging.

  • ✓ Proven over this exact course and distance
  • ✓ F Brennan's yard in form, 16% winners in the fortnight
  • ✓ Record at this level stands out
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
LADY FORTUNE ★ Top Rated
J: Isabelle Ryder(5) · T: F Brennan
24%
33%
3.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -27% 10th
2
CULLIGRAN
J: Kielan Woods · T: D J Jeffreys
14%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +35% 4th
3
DOTTIES PROMISE
J: Nathan Moscrop · T: Susan Corbett
11%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +79% 5th
4
MYFAVOURITESISTER
J: Brian Hughes · T: Patrick Neville
9%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -15% 11th
5
JUKEBOX ANNIE
J: Ben Godfrey · T: Claire Hitch
9%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +148% 6th
6
NO RISK TODAY
J: Jack Hogan · T: Fergal O'Brien
8%
20%
5.0
 -60% 3rd
7
NORTHERN ROSE
J: James Davies · T: Gary Hanmer
7%
23%
4.3
▼ Edge decreasing
 -70% Winner
8
PRETTYLADY
J: Jack Tudor · T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
7%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +52% 9th
9
CURIOUS MRS FOX
J: Joshua Thompson(5) · T: David Thompson
5%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +2% 2nd
10
MIRACLES DO HAPPEN
J: James Bowen · T: Billy Aprahamian
4%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -16% 8th
11
GRANNY B
J: Kevin Brogan · T: M Mullineaux
4%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -18% 7th
—
MISS OREO NR
J: Paddy Hanlon(5) · T: John Joseph Hanlon
3%
3%
34.0
 +12% Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org