Ayr 14:15 — Value Analysis

Ladbrokes 'Bet £5 Get £30 New Customer Offer' EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)

Monday 27 July 2026

Maiden GTF 7.0f Class 3 5 runners
🏁 Result: Bymiddaytomorrow won (SP 3.25)
Model's most likely LITTLE LADY KAREN 39% model chance · market 40%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates LITTLE LADY KAREN top (39% chance)
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 34 days since its last run
  • ✕ Pierre-Louis Jamin cold lately, 9% in the fortnight
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
LITTLE LADY KAREN ★ Top Rated
J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: K. R. Burke
39%
40%
2.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -3% 4th
2
MARCH LILLY
J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan
24%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
 +3% 5th
3
TEGERNSEE
J: Jason Hart · T: Hugo Palmer
14%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +37% 3rd
4
BYMIDDAYTOMORROW
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker
12%
31%
3.2
▼ Edge decreasing
 -60% Winner
5
KANZI
J: Connor Beasley · T: Charlie Johnston
7%
8%
12.0
 -19% 2nd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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