Southwell 14:30 — Value Analysis
Prestige Safety Your Trusted Safety Partner Handicap Stakes
Monday 27 July 2026
🏁 Result: Flash Kozo won
(SP 3.25)
Model's most likely
DESERT BELLE
34% model chance · market 27%
★ Best value
DESERT BELLE
model 34% vs market 27% · +28%
Why the model rates DESERT BELLE top (34% chance)
- ✓ Preferred to Its Only Fun, 11lb better in at the weights
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
- ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs
- ✕ Carries plenty of weight today
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
DESERT BELLE
★ Top Rated
|
34% |
27% |
3.8
▲ Edge increasing
|
+28% | 2nd |
| 2 |
ITS ONLY FUN
|
13% |
4% |
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+232% | 4th |
| 3 |
FLASH KOZO
|
10% |
24% |
4.2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-58% | Winner |
| 4 |
FURTHER MEASURE
|
9% |
6% |
17.0
|
+60% | 5th |
| 5 |
GLENNA
|
9% |
31% |
3.2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-71% | 3rd |
| 6 |
TENISON
|
8% |
13% |
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-43% | 7th |
| 7 |
WAVE POWER
|
7% |
1% |
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
⚠ market disagrees | 8th |
| 8 |
EASWRITH DESTINY
|
6% |
11% |
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-44% | 6th |
| 9 |
MARBUZET
|
6% |
2% |
41.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+133% | 9th |
| — |
VICTORS SPIRIT
NR
|
4% |
— |
—
|
— | Withdrawn |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org