Ayr 14:45 — Value Analysis

'Ladbrokes Get More With Racing Bet Builder' Handicap Stakes

Monday 27 July 2026

Other Handicap GTF 6.0f Class 6 9 runners
🏁 Result: Mr Cool won (SP 4.5)
Model's most likely MR COOL 37% model chance · market 23%
★ Best value MR COOL model 37% vs market 23% · +61%
Why the model rates MR COOL top (37% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Cotai Starlight, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✓ Charlie Johnston readies first-timers, 6% with debutants
  • ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
MR COOL ★ Top Rated
J: Connor Beasley · T: Charlie Johnston
37%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
 +61% Winner
2
COTAI STARLIGHT
J: Jason Hart · T: Katie Scott
16%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +2% 4th
3
GREAT PROFIT
J: Barry McHugh · T: W H Harrison
13%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +3% 2nd
4
KELPIE GREY
J: Amie Waugh(3) · T: Jim Goldie
11%
22%
4.5
 -52% 6th
5
TAP DANCER
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie
10%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -38% 7th
6
WATER OF LEITH
J: Mark Winn · T: Jim Goldie
8%
15%
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -45% 5th
7
LANARRA
J: James Sullivan · T: R Mike Smith
7%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +12% 3rd
8
FALCON QUEEN
J: Tom Eaves · T: R Mike Smith
6%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +63% 8th
9
JOSHUAS DREAM
J: Lauren Young(5) · T: Jim Goldie
5%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +74% 9th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org