Beverley 13:35 — Value Analysis

Lady Jane Bethell Memorial Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 28 July 2026

Amateur GTF 10.0f Class 6 8 runners
Model's most likely SUNNY ORANGE 25% model chance · market 29%
★ Best value LITTLE SHE model 19% vs market 12% · +51%
Why the model rates SUNNY ORANGE top (25% chance)
  • ✓ Handles the good to firm well
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 14 days since its last run
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SUNNY ORANGE ★ Top Rated
J: Miss Amy Collier · T: Tim Easterby
25%
29%
3.5
 -12%
2
LITTLE SHE
J: Miss Alice Tregoning(5) · T: Marcus Tregoning
19%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +51%
3
PERFIDIA
J: Mr Thomas Easterby(3) · T: Tim Easterby
18%
25%
4.0
 -27%
4
STIPULATION
J: Mr Jack Loughnane(7) · T: Mark Loughnane
12%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +98%
5
STAR START
J: Miss Charli Parker(5) · T: Ruth Carr
10%
23%
4.3
 -55%
6
THE PUG
J: Mr Josh Myers(7) · T: Olly Murphy
9%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -0%
7
ALAZWAR
J: Miss Brodie Hampson · T: Archie Watson
6%
9%
11.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -25%
8
SANDRET
J: Miss Rebecca Hitchen(5) · T: Sam England
6%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -13%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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