Goodwood 13:50 — Value Analysis

Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 28 July 2026

Other Handicap GD 10.0f Class 2 18 runners

Model's most likely DIEGO EL QUESO 18% model chance · market 23%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates DIEGO EL QUESO top (18% chance)

✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Ideally fresh - 19 days since its last run
✓ G M Lyons's yard in form, 19% winners in the last two months
✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs
✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	DIEGO EL QUESO ★ Top Rated J: Colin Keane · T: G M Lyons	18%	23%	4.3 ▼ Edge decreasing	-23%
2	LIBERTY LANE J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke	14%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+76%
3	NOBLE HORIZON J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Oli Rix	11%	14%	7.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-20%
4	QUAI DE BETHUNE J: James Doyle · T: Hamad Al Jehani	8%	11%	9.0	-24%
5	RATHGAR J: David Probert · T: Jack Channon	8%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+21%
6	AL AALI J: William Buick · T: George Scott	7%	12%	8.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-44%
7	NIGHT BREEZE J: Edward Greatrex · T: Ian Williams	6%	8%	13.0	-27%
—	MIDAK NR J: Jamie Spencer · T: Ian Williams	5%	8%	12.0	-34%	Withdrawn
8	PAROLE DORO J: Hector Crouch · T: Michael Bell	5%	6%	17.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-21%
9	TONY MONTANA J: Toby Moore(7) · T: Kevin Philippart De Foy	4%	6%	17.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-30%
10	TORITO J: Benoit de la Sayette · T: John & Thady Gosden	4%	4%	26.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+1%
11	TWISTING PHYSICS J: Ashley Lewis(5) · T: Oliver Cole	4%	12%	8.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-67%
12	WAVE RIDER J: Oisin Murphy · T: George Scott	3%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-55%
13	YABHER J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas	3%	12%	8.5	-76%
14	BOLSTER J: George Wood · T: Jack Morland	3%	1%	67.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+69%
15	DHAHABI J: Charles Bishop · T: Ian Williams	2%	1%	101.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+99%
16	HENLEIN J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan	2%	1%	67.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+6%
17	KINGS CODE J: J F Egan · T: David Evans	1%	3%	34.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-55%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org