Beverley 14:10 — Value Analysis

Thank You Kathy Burne Selling Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 28 July 2026

Selling Handicap GTF 12.0f Class 6 7 runners

Model's most likely TALKING IN KODE 33% model chance · market 18%

★ Best value TALKING IN KODE model 33% vs market 18% · +82%

Why the model rates TALKING IN KODE top (33% chance)

✓ Preferred to La Trinite, 11lb better in at the weights
✓ Handles the good to firm well
✓ A previous winner at Beverley
✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	TALKING IN KODE ★ Top Rated J: Cian Horgan(5) · T: Edward Bethell	33%	18%	5.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+82%
2	LA TRINITE J: Dougie Costello · T: Neil King	23%	31%	3.2 ▼ Edge decreasing	-26%
3	HEAD GIRL J: Jason Hart · T: Jonathan Portman	20%	31%	3.2 ▼ Edge decreasing	-36%
4	PORTERS SONG J: Jack Garritty · T: Liam Bailey	13%	6%	17.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+124%
5	RULER OF THE RIVER J: Barry McHugh · T: Philip Kirby	12%	1%	101.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+1092%market disagrees
6	BLACKWATER LILLY J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Neil King	10%	20%	5.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-50%
7	CHARACTER TESTING J: Kyle McHugh(7) · T: Mark Walford	9%	8%	12.0	+3%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org