Goodwood 13:50 — Value Analysis

Coral Rewards Shaker Handicap Stakes (Gbbplus Race)

Wednesday 29 July 2026

Other Handicap GD 12.0f Class 2 9 runners
Model's most likely HATTEEN 32% model chance · market 31%
★ Best value HATTEEN model 32% vs market 31% · +5%
Why the model rates HATTEEN top (32% chance)

Preferred to Cannes and a proven winner at this class, though form figures leave plenty to find. Yard in form at 18% in the last two months, but the trip poses a question mark as he steps into stronger company.

  • ✓ Preferred to Cannes, a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ Andrew Balding's yard in form, 18% winners in the last two months
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance
Market
Implies
Avg Price Value
2
CANNES
J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
17%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
+5%
3
INFRAAD
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas
17%
31%
3.2
▼ Edge decreasing
-44%
4
TIERRA DEL TORO
J: James Doyle · T: Ralph Beckett
14%
13%
7.5
+9%
5
BALTIC FLEET
J: William Buick · T: Ian Williams
10%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
+224%
6
BAY ROYALE
J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: Harry Eustace
9%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
-25%
BLUE HERCULES NR
J: Billy Loughnane · T: William Muir & Chris Grassick
8%
3%
29.0
+129% Withdrawn
7
SEA AND SUN
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Charlie Johnston
8%
5%
19.0
▼ Edge decreasing
+44%
8
PARISIAN SCHOLAR
J: Rowan Scott · T: Charlie Johnston
6%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
+126%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org