Redcar 14:05 — Value Analysis

Racing Tv Free Trial British Apprentice Handicap Stakes

Wednesday 29 July 2026

Other Handicap GTF 6.0f Class 4 7 runners
Model's most likely AMORIM 36% model chance · market 17%
★ Best value AMORIM model 36% vs market 17% · +114%
Why the model rates AMORIM top (36% chance)

Preferred and better in the weights with a Redcar win on record. The yard fires at 17% in the fortnight; consecutive thirds lack a winner and the going to firm is a question mark after 33 days away.

  • ✓ Preferred to Kats Bob, 5lb better in at the weights
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✓ Nicely in at the weights
  • ✕ The good to firm is a question mark for it
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance
Market
Implies
Avg Price Value
2
KATS BOB
J: William Pyle · T: Ruth Carr
23%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
+1%
3
ARCHDUKE FERDINAND
J: Shay Farmer · T: Seb Spencer
16%
25%
4.0
-38%
4
STAR MATERIAL
J: Conor Whiteley · T: Adrian Keatley
14%
14%
7.0
+0%
5
ARTAGNAN
J: Jack Nicholls · T: Hamad Al Jehani
11%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
-4%
6
MYTHICAL PHOENIX
J: Warren Fentiman · T: Julie Camacho
10%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
+12%
7
FIRST FOLIO
J: Tom Kiely-Marshall · T: Julie Camacho
9%
15%
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
-43%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org