Galway 14:10 — Value Analysis

Guinness Irish EBF Nursery Handicap

Thursday 30 July 2026

Nursery GD 7.0f Class 0 8 runners
Model's most likely CELTIC MOON 26% model chance · market 27%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates CELTIC MOON top (26% chance)
  • ✓ Ben Coen and J P Murtagh win 15% together
  • ✓ Record at this level stands out
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
CELTIC MOON ★ Top Rated
J: Ben Coen · T: J P Murtagh
26%
27%
3.8
▲ Edge increasing
 -4%
2
SEVEN NATION ARMY
J: J M Sheridan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
23%
34%
3.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -31%
3
BANKS OF THE BOYNE
J: Wesley Joyce(3) · T: Michael Mulvany
19%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +107%
4
BOLD COMMANDER
J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: A P O'Brien
14%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -45%
5
I READY
J: Reese Holohan(7) · T: Paul W Flynn
13%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +40%
—
MARGOT MAE NR
J: Scott McCullagh · T: Mrs John Harrington
9%
—
—
 — Withdrawn
6
WINNIES WISH
J: Chris Hayes · T: Gavin Cromwell
7%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +274%
7
EIGHTEENTH SMILES
J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
6%
11%
9.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -45%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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