Nottingham 14:00 — Value Analysis

European Breeders Fund EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Thursday 30 July 2026

Novice Stakes GTF 5.0f Class 4 2 runners
Model's most likely FUNKY DORY 52% model chance · market 56%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates FUNKY DORY top (52% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Roots In Touche, a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ Unraced - yard wins 14% with its first-time-out runners
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ No form to judge - genuine unknown

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
FUNKY DORY ★ Top Rated
J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke
52%
56%
1.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -7%
2
ROOTS IN TOUCHE
J: M. P. Sheehy · T: Adrian Keatley
34%
52%
1.9
▲ Edge increasing
 -34%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org