Goodwood 13:50 — Value Analysis

Coral Kincsem Heritage Handicap

Thursday 30 July 2026

Other Handicap GTF 10.0f Class 2 14 runners

Model's most likely CIARRAI ABU 17% model chance · market 25%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates CIARRAI ABU top (17% chance)

✓ Was well-in against its last field on ratings
✓ Handles the good to firm well
✓ Ideally fresh - 20 days since its last run
✕ Little to like about its run three runs back
✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	CIARRAI ABU ★ Top Rated J: George Wood · T: Harry Eustace	17%	25%	4.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-31%
2	BIRGHAM DUB J: Oisin Murphy · T: Jane Chapple-Hyam	17%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+123%
3	HARMONICS J: Shane Foley · T: John & Thady Gosden	16%	18%	5.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-13%
4	SAVVY DISKO J: Billy Loughnane · T: S Woods	14%	8%	12.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+70%
5	DIAL ME IN J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien	11%	15%	6.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-30%
6	EVANESCO J: David Egan · T: Charlie Johnston	10%	11%	9.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-13%
7	DECADE OF TIME J: Tom Marquand · T: Jack Channon	8%	12%	8.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-36%
8	LION OF ALBA J: David Probert · T: Hugo Palmer	7%	5%	19.0	+34%
9	DARK WHISPER J: Jamie Spencer · T: David Menuisier	6%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+37%
10	GONNA FLY J: Hector Crouch · T: Ralph Beckett	5%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+121%
11	BOURBON BLUES J: Joe Leavy · T: Brian Meehan	4%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+61%
12	LEAN DAISLINGEAN J: Edward Greatrex · T: Charlie Pike	3%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+72%
13	LOZ VEGAS J: Marco Ghiani · T: Peter Chapple-Hyam	3%	4%	23.0	-32%
14	STRENGTH OF SPIRIT J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: K. R. Burke	3%	4%	26.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-32%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org