Goodwood 13:50 — Value Analysis

Coral Goodwood Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)

Friday 31 July 2026

Other Handicap GTF 20.5f Class 2 18 runners

Model's most likely VALIANCY 17% model chance · market 27%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates VALIANCY top (17% chance)

✓ Preferred to Highwind, a proven winner at this class
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Nicely in at the weights
✕ Little to like about its run three runs back
✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	VALIANCY ★ Top Rated J: James Doyle · T: William Haggas	17%	27%	3.8 ▲ Edge increasing	-37%
2	HIGHWIND J: David Egan · T: W P Mullins	11%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+72%
3	MAXI KING J: Toby Moore(7) · T: Kevin Philippart De Foy	10%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+57%
4	ANNABELS GHOST J: Pierre-Charles Boudot · T: M Seror	8%	8%	13.0	+8%
5	BERKSHIRE SUNDANCE J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding	7%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+69%
6	CHARGING THUNDER J: David Probert · T: James Owen	7%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+109%
7	AGGAGIO J: Molly Gunn(5) · T: Gary & Josh Moore	6%	4%	26.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+53%
8	ALPHONSE LE GRANDE J: Jamie Powell · T: A J Martin	5%	12%	8.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-54%
9	BELIEVITANDUCAN J: William Buick · T: Alan King	5%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-75%
10	DEFIANTLY J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien	5%	17%	6.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-73%
11	DUKE OF OXFORD J: Ryan Moore · T: Michael Bell	4%	3%	31.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+27%
12	SEA OF KINGS J: Saffie Osborne · T: Harry Eustace	4%	9%	11.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-59%
13	ST MAWES J: Ray Dawson · T: George Scott	4%	12%	8.5	-69%
14	KENTUCKY RIVER J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: Olly Murphy	3%	8%	13.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-66%
—	SAX APPEAL NR J: J F Egan · T: Charlie Johnston	2%	—	—	—	Withdrawn
—	ANNIVERSARY NR J: Jamie Spencer · T: Ralph Beckett	2%	—	—	—	Withdrawn
15	GOOLOOGONG J: Isobelle Chalmers(7) · T: George Baker	2%	1%	81.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+29%
16	TROJAN SUN J: Olivia Tubb(5) · T: Jim Goldie	1%	1%	81.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+20%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org