Wolverhampton 14:00 — Value Analysis
attheraces.com/marketmovers Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)
Friday 31 July 2026
Model's most likely
RAJIBA
33% model chance · market 40%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates RAJIBA top (33% chance)
- ✓ Preferred to Foxy Night, better suited by the trip
- ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
- ✓ Ran well three runs back
- ✕ Consistency has been a worry
- ✕ Trip is a question mark
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
RAJIBA
★ Top Rated
|
33% |
40% |
2.5
|
-18% | |
| 2 |
FOXY NIGHT
|
17% |
36% |
2.8
|
-54% | |
| 3 |
MARIANNE MOZART
|
11% |
8% |
12.0
|
+30% | |
| 4 |
NAVONA GREY
|
8% |
8% |
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+4% | |
| 5 |
STAR OF COMMALA
|
6% |
1% |
67.0
|
+296% | |
| 6 |
GILDING THE LILY
|
5% |
22% |
4.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-79% | |
| 7 |
ESPLANADE
|
4% |
1% |
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+262% | |
| 8 |
SHATIN BEAUTY
|
3% |
1% |
176.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+515%market disagrees | |
| 9 |
KERNOW ROSE
|
3% |
4% |
26.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-13% | |
| 10 |
PINK PYJAMAS
|
3% |
3% |
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-8% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org