Newcastle 14:10 — Value Analysis

Kids Eat For £1 At The Border Minstrel This Summer Classified Stakes

Friday 31 July 2026

Classified Stakes STSL 10.0f Class 6 10 runners

Model's most likely ROGERS DREAM 24% model chance · market 18%

★ Best value ROGERS DREAM model 24% vs market 18% · +31%

Why the model rates ROGERS DREAM top (24% chance)

✓ Gihan Arnolda's yard in form, 17% winners in the last two months
✓ Record at this level stands out
✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	ROGERS DREAM ★ Top Rated J: P J McDonald · T: Gihan Arnolda	24%	18%	5.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+31%
2	WICKLOW WAY J: Jack Garritty · T: Mark Walford	20%	31%	3.2	-34%
3	BITACORA J: Oisin Orr · T: Daragh Bourke	10%	5%	19.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+92%
4	INSPIRING SPEECHES J: Jonny Peate · T: Sara Ender	10%	17%	6.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-42%
5	BALQAA J: Barry McHugh · T: Tony Culhane & Stella Barclay	9%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+20%
6	MILLBUIE J: William Pyle · T: Ewan Whillans	9%	14%	7.0	-37%
7	TIBERIO FORCE J: Andrew Elliott · T: Simon Whitaker	7%	17%	6.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-56%
8	ARRANMORE J: Aiden Brookes · T: Micky Hammond	5%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+23%
9	DUE TO SHINE J: Cam Hardie · T: Brian Ellison	4%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+128%
10	EVA THE DEEVA J: Alex Jary(3) · T: Nigel Tinkler	4%	4%	23.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+3%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org