Goodwood 13:50 — Value Analysis

Highclere Castle Gin Summer Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

Saturday 1 August 2026

Other Handicap GTF 14.0f Class 2 14 runners

Model's most likely HOPEWELL ROCK 18% model chance · market 14%

★ Best value HOPEWELL ROCK model 18% vs market 14% · +23%

Why the model rates HOPEWELL ROCK top (18% chance)

✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Handles the good to firm well
✓ Ryan Moore and George Boughey win 14% together
✕ Yet to be tested against much
✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	HOPEWELL ROCK ★ Top Rated J: Ryan Moore · T: George Boughey	18%	14%	7.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+23%
2	SING US A SONG J: James Doyle · T: Ralph Beckett	17%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-7%
3	VALEDICTORY J: William Buick · T: John & Thady Gosden	17%	27%	3.8	-37%
4	INCENSED J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Amanda Perrett	12%	6%	17.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+98%
5	AERONAUTIC J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien	9%	20%	5.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-54%
6	TARRIANCE J: Colin Keane · T: Andrew Balding	9%	7%	15.0	+33%
7	ALIGN THE STARS J: Daniel Muscutt · T: Charlie Johnston	7%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+44%
8	NIGHTIME DANCER J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon	7%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+169%
9	STRESSFREE J: Tom Marquand · T: David O'Meara	6%	3%	37.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+124%
10	BAHADUR J: David Egan · T: S Woods	4%	3%	34.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+47%
11	BURDETT ROAD J: Mason Paetel(5) · T: James Owen	4%	3%	29.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+23%
12	SMALL FRY J: Oisin Murphy · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien	4%	14%	7.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-74%
—	TOO SOON NR J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: Gary & Josh Moore	4%	4%	26.0	-7%	Withdrawn
13	NESTHORN J: Benoit de la Sayette · T: George Baker	3%	1%	67.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+83%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org