Thirsk 13:38 — Value Analysis

John & Paula 25th Wedding Anniversary Ebf Novice Stakes (gbb Race)

Saturday 1 August 2026

Novice Stakes GD 5.0f Class 4 8 runners
Model's most likely PALM READER 37% model chance · market 42%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates PALM READER top (37% chance)
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✓ Zak Wheatley and Declan Carroll win 12% together
  • ✓ Zak Wheatley riding well, 13% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
PALM READER ★ Top Rated
J: Zak Wheatley · T: Declan Carroll
37%
42%
2.4
▼ Edge decreasing
 -13%
2
BATTLE FEVER
J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan
17%
27%
3.8
▲ Edge increasing
 -36%
3
RIVER JORDAN
J: Connor Beasley · T: Phillip Makin
9%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +214%
4
BACHA
J: Cam Hardie · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
8%
11%
9.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -27%
5
ARTICULATE
J: William Pyle · T: Kevin & Lauren Frost
5%
1%
151.0
 +718%market disagrees
6
RED BLUE POINT
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: James Tate
5%
33%
3.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -85%
7
SUENICORA STAR
J: Ben Robinson · T: Brian Ellison
5%
2%
51.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +139%
8
UNBEATABLE FAME
J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
5%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +137%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

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