Newmarket July 13:33 — Value Analysis

British Stallion Studs Ebf Chalice Stakes (Listed Race) (GBBPlus Race)

Saturday 1 August 2026

Listed GTF 12.0f Class 1 9 runners

Model's most likely MISS JUSTICE 23% model chance · market 11%

★ Best value REVOIR model 18% vs market 14% · +29%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: ROMANTIC SYMPHONY is the market favourite (2.3) but the model rates it only 10% vs the market's 43% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates MISS JUSTICE top (23% chance)

✓ Well treated on official ratings
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Ran well three runs back
✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	MISS JUSTICE ★ Top Rated J: Joe Leavy · T: Brian Meehan	23%	11%	9.0	+109%
2	REVOIR J: Rhys Clutterbuck · T: Ralph Beckett	18%	14%	7.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+29%
3	FRANCOPHONE J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: Charlie Johnston	14%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+77%
4	ORIONIS J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas	11%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-37%
5	ROMANTIC SYMPHONY J: Billy Loughnane · T: Charlie Appleby	10%	43%	2.3 ▼ Edge decreasing	-77%
6	ORCHARD KEEPER J: Jack Mitchell · T: Roger Varian	8%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+187%
7	GONE BY J: Charles Bishop · T: Ralph Beckett	7%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-4%
8	SUNSHINE STAR J: Robert Havlin · T: John & Thady Gosden	6%	8%	12.0	-27%
—	RYKA NR J: Clifford Lee · T: David O'Meara	5%	5%	21.0	+13%	Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org