Galway 13:50 — Value Analysis

Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle

Sunday 2 August 2026

Handicap Hurdle GD 16.5f Class 0 18 runners
Model's most likely IMPERIAL MISS 18% model chance · market 3%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates IMPERIAL MISS top (18% chance)

Preferred to Timurshah and better suited by trip and ground, Imperial Miss boasts a strong record at this level and was well-in against her last field on ratings despite consistency doubts.

  • ✓ Preferred to Timurshah, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
  • ✓ Thomas Gibney readies first-timers, 7% with debutants
  • ✓ Was well-in against its last field on ratings
  • ✕ Thomas Gibney's yard quiet lately, 5% in the last two months
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
IMPERIAL MISS ★ Top Rated
J: Michael Kenneally · T: Thomas Gibney
18%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +431%market disagrees
2
TIMURSHAH
J: Conor Smithers · T: Aidan Melia
16%
27%
3.8
 -39%
3
COOLBOY CHRISTY
J: Shane O'Callaghan · T: P J Rothwell
10%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +12%
4
WAHRAAN
J: Carl Millar(2) · T: Jessica Bedi
10%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -56%
5
CASTLEHEATH
J: Eoghan Finegan(2) · T: Ciaran Murphy
8%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -14%
6
BANNOW BLAZE
J: Eoin Staples(2) · T: Jonathan Fogarty
8%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +16%
7
CLOONAINRA
J: Patrick M O'Brien · T: John C McConnell
6%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +111%
8
DREAM SHAPER
J: Brian Barry(4) · T: I Madden
6%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -20%
9
PARTY PRESIDENT
J: Dylan O'Connor(4) · T: A D Leahy
6%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +130%
10
PLAYTIME
J: Josh Williamson · T: Gordon Elliott
5%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -37%
11
SPACE WARRIOR
J: Sean Cleary-Farrell(4) · T: Thomas Mullins
5%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +35%
12
TEED UP
J: Alan O'Sullivan(2) · T: Emmet Mullins
4%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -82%
13
BARRYS SPIRIT
J: Kevin Healy · T: Adrian Murray
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +26%
14
MO GHILLE MAR
J: Harry Sexton(4) · T: John Joseph Hanlon
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +8%
15
MY TRUMP CARD
J: Shane Fitzsimons(4) · T: John C McConnell
2%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +21%
16
PENZANCE
J: Paddy Hanlon(2) · T: John Joseph Hanlon
2%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -67%
17
TASSAROLO
J: Liam McKenna · T: Denis Gerard Hogan
2%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -17%
18
TORQUE DE LUNE
J: Calum Hogan(2) · T: John Joseph Hanlon
2%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -19%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org