Chester 14:10 — Value Analysis

Radnor Hills Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

Sunday 2 August 2026

Other Handicap GD 12.5f Class 4 7 runners

Model's most likely TIMBER TWELVE 34% model chance · market 31%

★ Best value TIMBER TWELVE model 34% vs market 31% · +12%

Why the model rates TIMBER TWELVE top (34% chance)

Winning one of his last two starts with three victories in five, Timber Twelve enjoys a strong recent record at this level on ideal freshness of 32 days, though he has yet to triumph at today's class or higher.

✓ Preferred to Charmaine, 10lb better in at the weights
✓ Well treated on official ratings
✓ Bang on trip for it at 1m4f
✕ Ross Coakley cold lately, 5% in the last two months
✕ Little to like about its run two runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	TIMBER TWELVE ★ Top Rated J: Ross Coakley · T: Michael Bell	34%	31%	3.2 ▲ Edge increasing	+12%
2	CHARMAINE J: Daniel Muscutt · T: James Fanshawe	21%	27%	3.8 ▼ Edge decreasing	-23%
3	LEVEL LOOK J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding	17%	29%	3.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-39%
4	PATAGONIA GIRL J: David Probert · T: Hugo Palmer	15%	12%	8.5	+24%
5	KUREDU KING J: Joanna Mason · T: Donald McCain	11%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+223%
6	LEAGLE AID J: Jack Callan(3) · T: Charlie Johnston	11%	12%	8.5	-10%
7	WESTERTON J: George Wood · T: Jennie Candlish	9%	4%	26.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+127%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org