Galway 14:20 — Value Analysis

Kenny Galway Peugeot Handicap Hurdle

Sunday 2 August 2026

Handicap Hurdle GD 24.5f Class 0 23 runners

Model's most likely HIGH COURT CAVE 13% model chance · market 12%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates HIGH COURT CAVE top (13% chance)

Though his form dipped over his last three outings following a win four starts back, High Court Cave drops into an easier field and returns from an ideal 35-day break with going experience in his favour.

✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Has won over 3m before
✓ Ideally fresh - 35 days since its last run
✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
✕ Noel C Kelly's yard quiet lately, 7% in the fortnight

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	HIGH COURT CAVE ★ Top Rated J: Mr O McGill(5) · T: Noel C Kelly	13%	12%	8.5	+6%
2	FOU DE TOI J: Paul Townend · T: W P Mullins	8%	20%	5.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-60%
3	ROCKYS HOWYA J: Mr D L Queally · T: Declan Queally	7%	11%	9.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-34%
4	SALLAP J: Michael Kenneally(5) · T: S Curling	7%	9%	11.0	-26%
5	SIR ALLEN J: Sam Coen(5) · T: Andrew Slattery	6%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-6%
—	BURNING ABILITY NR J: G B Noonan · T: Eoin Christopher McCarthy	5%	7%	15.0	-26%	Withdrawn
6	ADALIZ J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: Henry De Bromhead	5%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+7%
7	JUSTATAN J: Donagh Meyler · T: Emmet Mullins	4%	25%	4.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-84%
8	CAHER ROES DEN J: Danny Mullins · T: W P Mullins	4%	11%	9.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-63%
9	ELUSIVE OGIE J: Simon Torrens · T: Eoin Christopher McCarthy	4%	7%	14.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-48%
—	MOONOVERCLOON NR J: Sam Ewing · T: Declan Queally	3%	—	—	—	Withdrawn
10	PINOT ROUGE J: Conor Rabbitt(3) · T: Jessica Bedi	3%	6%	17.0	-51%
11	MR MASTER MAC J: Thomas O'Connor(7) · T: Mark Fahey	3%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-42%
—	WARRIORS WOOD NR J: Kevin Healy(7) · T: Andrew McNamara	2%	6%	17.0	-58%	Withdrawn
12	REIKI REVOLUTION J: Keith Donoghue · T: Gavin Cromwell	2%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-63%
13	WILD MANDATE J: Reserve 1 · T: Mark Michael McNiff	2%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-68%
14	BEGGARS ROCK J: Conor Stone-Walsh · T: Ian Patrick Donoghue	2%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-65%
—	FAIR DAMSEL NR J: Reserve 2 · T: Cian Collins	1%	4%	26.0	-66%	Withdrawn
15	FORCEONMYOWN J: Joshua Halford(7) · T: Gordon Elliott	1%	5%	21.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-76%
16	PAT COYNE J: Reserve 3 · T: John Queally	1%	5%	21.0	-77%
17	MENTO J: Josh Williamson(5) · T: Thomas Cooper	1%	4%	26.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-78%
18	STORMBREAKER J: Paddy Hanlon(5) · T: John Joseph Hanlon	1%	2%	51.0	-60%
19	TULLYVEERY LAD J: Donagh Meyler · T: R P Cody	1%	5%	21.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-85%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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