Cork 14:30 — Value Analysis

www.mourneabbeyoil.ie Mares Maiden Hurdle

Monday 3 August 2026

Maiden GD 17.0f Class 0 18 runners

Model's most likely EMERALD ENIGMA 21% model chance · market 69%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates EMERALD ENIGMA top (21% chance)

✓ W P Mullins's yard in form, 17% winners in the last two months
✓ W P Mullins readies first-timers, 27% with debutants
✓ Ran well over its last three runs
✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	EMERALD ENIGMA ★ Top Rated J: Paul Townend · T: W P Mullins	21%	69%	1.4 ▼ Edge decreasing	-70%
2	BELLADABALL J: Keith Donoghue · T: Gavin Cromwell	15%	17%	6.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-12%
3	EASTER BONNET J: Brian Hayes · T: W P Mullins	12%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+62%
4	WONDERFUL EVERYDAY J: Danny Mullins · T: W P Mullins	11%	20%	5.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-45%
5	GOLDEN WINGS J: Jack Kennedy · T: Gordon Elliott	9%	5%	19.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+70%
6	KALEO AMETSA J: Phillip Enright · T: Josh Halley	7%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+55%
7	FRAHER FIELD J: Alan O'Sullivan(5) · T: John E & Thomas Kiely	6%	8%	12.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-27%
8	BEECHINGSTOKE J: Josh Younge(7) · T: Andrew Slattery	6%	2%	51.0	+186%
9	QUEENOFQUEENSTREET J: Ian Power · T: E Sheehy	4%	1%	126.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+369%market disagrees
10	MISTY VALENTINE J: Luke Burke Ott(7) · T: M Winters	3%	1%	151.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+356%market disagrees
11	KENNYS JEWEL J: J J Slevin · T: Ms Margaret Mullins	2%	1%	151.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+277%
12	NEAT AS A PIN J: Rian Lane(7) · T: E Bolger	2%	1%	126.0	+184%
13	KAUTO EMPRESS J: Ms A T O'Reilly(7) · T: M Winters	2%	1%	101.0	+88%
14	THE ORPHAN GIRL J: Ethan O'Sullivan(7) · T: Peter Fahey	2%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-47%
15	ABSOLUTLEY FAB J: John Shinnick · T: W J Burke	2%	1%	151.0	+133%
16	FLOWING FAST J: Mr A P Kennedy(7) · T: Gearoid O'Loughlin	1%	1%	101.0	+37%
17	WINDY GREY J: Mr Andrew Burke-Ott(7) · T: Paul O'Flynn	1%	1%	151.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+76%
18	JOLLY DOLIVATE J: Tiernan Power Roche · T: P J Rothwell	1%	1%	151.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+60%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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