Ripon 14:24 — Value Analysis

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Monday 3 August 2026

Novice Stakes GD 6.0f Class 4 4 runners
Model's most likely THE MEAN FIDDLER 50% model chance · market 50%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates THE MEAN FIDDLER top (50% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Reflect On Glory, better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
  • ✓ Jason Hart riding well, 17% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
THE MEAN FIDDLER ★ Top Rated
J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn
50%
50%
2.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -0%
2
REFLECT ON GLORY
J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke
18%
31%
3.2
 -41%
3
WAR GAMING
J: Cieren Fallon · T: George Scott
18%
29%
3.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -38%
4
SOLE RULER
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Paul Midgley
11%
2%
41.0
 +347%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org