Naas 14:17 — Value Analysis

TRM Ironxcell For Energy Race

Monday 3 August 2026

Unclassified GD 6.0f Class 0 6 runners
Model's most likely LIKEDBYMIKE 36% model chance · market 52%
★ Best value FOCACCIA model 17% vs market 14% · +22%
Why the model rates LIKEDBYMIKE top (36% chance)
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✓ Has won over 6f before
  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
LIKEDBYMIKE ★ Top Rated
J: J M Sheridan · T: M J Byrne
36%
52%
1.9
▼ Edge decreasing
 -32%
2
BEAR ON THE RUN
J: Shane Foley · T: Daniel James Murphy
20%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -2%
3
FOCACCIA
J: Gavin Ryan · T: J A Stack
17%
14%
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +22%
4
MICHAELS WELL
J: Jamie Powell · T: Eddie & Patrick Harty
16%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +6%
5
PORT ARTHUR
J: W J Lee · T: M C Grassick
15%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +61%
6
TOLEBI
J: Danny O'Leary(10) · T: Gerard O'Leary
8%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +52%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org