Catterick 14:15 — Value Analysis

Army Benevolent Fund/ebf Novice Stakes (gbb Race)

Tuesday 4 August 2026

Novice Stakes GD 7.0f Class 3 7 runners
Model's most likely WAAKABB 46% model chance · market 42%
★ Best value WAAKABB model 46% vs market 42% · +9%
Why the model rates WAAKABB top (46% chance)

Jason Hart's 15% strike rate in the fortnight and Crisford's 16% record with debutants show promise, but their 0% partnership is a concern. Racing above this level, the young improver has scope, though form figures leave ground to find.

  • ✓ Jason Hart riding well, 15% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✓ Simon & Ed Crisford readies first-timers, 16% with debutants
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
  • ✕ Jason Hart and Simon & Ed Crisford rarely click, 0%

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
WAAKABB ★ Top Rated
J: Jason Hart · T: Simon & Ed Crisford
46%
42%
2.4
 +9%
2
NATIONAL PRIDE
J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas
24%
35%
2.9
▼ Edge decreasing
 -31%
3
PALACE LEGACY
J: Connor Beasley · T: James Tate
12%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -33%
4
A LA MONTAGNE
J: Luke Morris · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
8%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +9%
5
STORMY WINTER
J: Clifford Lee · T: Saeed bin Suroor
8%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -29%
6
DARRINGTON GOLF
J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby
7%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +606%market disagrees
7
BREAKING THE HABIT
J: Sean Kirrane · T: Tim Easterby
7%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +356%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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