Ffos Las 14:30 — Value Analysis

Happy 70th Birthday Brian Glanville Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 4 August 2026

Other Handicap GD 6.0f Class 5 7 runners
Model's most likely SAFARI DREAM 34% model chance · market 31%
★ Best value SAFARI DREAM model 34% vs market 31% · +11%
Why the model rates SAFARI DREAM top (34% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Newsreader, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
  • ✓ Oisin Murphy and Rod Millman win 44% together
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SAFARI DREAM ★ Top Rated
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Rod Millman
34%
31%
3.2
 +11%
2
NEWSREADER
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Tony Carroll
19%
22%
4.5
 -16%
3
THE COFFEE POD
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: William Muir & Chris Grassick
16%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -27%
4
ESCAPE PLAN
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Tom Ward
12%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +47%
5
THE FEMININE URGE
J: Seamus Cronin(5) · T: Grace Harris
12%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -1%
6
DIAMONDINTHEDARK
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Mark Loughnane
10%
6%
17.0
 +64%
7
MONSIEUR PATAT
J: David Egan · T: Adrian Wintle
9%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -49%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org