Brighton 14:30 — Value Analysis

Jenningsbet Over 200 Shops Nationwide Handicap Stakes

Wednesday 5 August 2026

Other Handicap GTF 6.0f Class 6 5 runners
Model's most likely CAPE TORONADA 44% model chance · market 42%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates CAPE TORONADA top (44% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Love Alive, a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ Nicely in at the weights
  • ✓ Proven over this exact course and distance
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
CAPE TORONADA ★ Top Rated
J: William Carson · T: Tony Carroll
2.4 ·market 42%
44%
42%
2.4
 +4%
2
LOVE ALIVE
J: Alistair Rawlinson · T: John Butler
3.5 ·market 29%
20%
29%
3.5
 -28%
3
HAVANA JAG
J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: John Gallagher
5.0 ·market 20%
15%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -25%
4
BEACH PARTEE
J: Tyler Heard · T: Scott Dixon
10.0 ·market 10%
13%
10%
10.0
 +28%
5
MISTER MOET
J: Christian Howarth(3) · T: Scott Dixon
9.0 ·market 11%
12%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +8%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org