Pontefract 14:45 — Value Analysis

Honda Wakefield Super-n Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes

Wednesday 5 August 2026

Amateur GTF 10.0f Class 6 7 runners
Model's most likely SUNNY ORANGE 35% model chance · market 31%
★ Best value GLITTER CODE model 21% vs market 17% · +29%
Why the model rates SUNNY ORANGE top (35% chance)
  • ✓ Tim Easterby readies first-timers, 4% with debutants
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Bang on trip for it at 1m2f
  • ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SUNNY ORANGE ★ Top Rated
J: Mr Thomas Easterby(3) · T: Tim Easterby
3.2 ·market 31%
35%
31%
3.2
▲ Edge increasing
 +13%
2
GLITTER CODE
J: Miss Nell Biker(7) · T: Edward Bethell
6.0 ·market 17%
21%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +29%
3
STAR START
J: Miss Charli Parker(5) · T: Ruth Carr
3.8 ·market 27%
17%
27%
3.8
 -37%
4
MAX OF STARS
J: Miss Chelsea Brooks(5) · T: Ollie Pears
5.0 ·market 20%
14%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -32%
5
THE PUG
J: Miss Jemima Stewart(7) · T: Olly Murphy
11.0 ·market 9%
9%
9%
11.0
 -4%
6
ANIFICAS BEAUTY
J: Miss Lauren Sanders(7) · T: Peter Winks
26.0 ·market 4%
6%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +63%
7
QUIRKE ON PAROLE
J: Miss Alice Cooke(5) · T: Mark Walford
15.0 ·market 7%
6%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -12%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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