Brighton 15:00 — Value Analysis
Jenningsbet In Deal Classified Stakes
Wednesday 5 August 2026
⚠ Vulnerable favourite: RIVER WHARFE is the market favourite (2.8) but the model rates it only 13% vs the market's 36% — it may be beatable.
- ✓ Preferred to First Encounter, 5lb better in at the weights
- ✓ Ideally fresh - 14 days since its last run
- ✕ Roger Teal's yard quiet lately, 7% in the last two months
- ✕ Trip is a question mark
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
ROVINIA
★ Top Rated
3.5
·market 29%
|
25% |
29% |
3.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-13% | |
| 2 |
FIRST ENCOUNTER
11.0
·market 9%
|
14% |
9% |
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+58% | |
| 3 |
RIVER WHARFE
2.8
·market 36%
|
13% |
36% |
2.8
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-65% | |
| 4 |
ASPIRE TO GLORY
14.0
·market 7%
|
10% |
7% |
14.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+38% | |
| 5 |
CELEBRATING ETHEL
13.0
·market 8%
|
9% |
8% |
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+21% | |
| 6 |
ROCK MASTER
17.0
·market 6%
|
9% |
6% |
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+47% | |
| 7 |
SANGARA
13.0
·market 8%
|
7% |
8% |
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-6% | |
| 8 |
RAINBOW SIGN
9.5
·market 11%
|
5% |
11% |
9.5
|
-54% | |
| 9 |
SKYOLAIRE
19.0
·market 5%
|
4% |
5% |
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-24% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org