Newmarket July 14:20 — Value Analysis

Knight Frank East Anglia Apprentice Handicap Stakes

Thursday 6 August 2026

Other Handicap GTF 8.0f Class 5 7 runners
Model's most likely HOME HERO 36% model chance · market 20%
★ Best value HOME HERO model 36% vs market 20% · +80%
Why the model rates HOME HERO top (36% chance)
  • ✓ Bang on trip for it at 1m
  • ✓ Hugo Palmer readies first-timers, 14% with debutants
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
HOME HERO ★ Top Rated
J: Toby Moore(7) · T: Hugo Palmer
5.0 ·market 20%
36%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +80%
2
STORMY MUSIC
J: Alfie Redman(7) · T: Andrew Balding
5.5 ·market 18%
19%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +7%
3
JUST TYPICAL
J: Ryan Kavanagh · T: Ian Williams
5.0 ·market 20%
17%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -15%
4
PANELLI
J: Chloe Lyons(7) · T: Stuart Williams
5.0 ·market 20%
12%
20%
5.0
 -38%
5
BORN A REBEL
J: Arron D'Arcy(7) · T: Patrick Owens
8.0 ·market 12%
11%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -15%
6
DASHING DICK
J: Taryn Langley(3) · T: William Stone
8.0 ·market 12%
10%
12%
8.0
 -24%
7
DECALOGUE
J: Conor Whiteley(3) · T: Jamie Osborne
9.5 ·market 11%
9%
11%
9.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -15%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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