Brighton 14:38 — Value Analysis

JenningsBet In Bexhill On Sea Apprentice Classified Stakes

Thursday 6 August 2026

Classified Stakes GTF 7.0f Class 6 8 runners
Model's most likely SPIRITED DANCER 31% model chance · market 18%
★ Best value SPIRITED DANCER model 31% vs market 18% · +71%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: RIVER WHARFE is the market favourite (2.4) but the model rates it only 18% vs the market's 42% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates SPIRITED DANCER top (31% chance)
  • ✓ Daniel & Claire Kubler's yard in form, 17% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Race-fit - out just 6 days ago
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SPIRITED DANCER ★ Top Rated
J: Warren Fentiman · T: Daniel & Claire Kubler
5.5 ·market 18%
31%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +71%
2
RIVER WHARFE
J: Molly Gunn(5) · T: Tony Carroll
2.4 ·market 42%
18%
42%
2.4
▼ Edge decreasing
 -58%
3
APPLES ANGEL
J: Owen Lewis(5) · T: Jim Boyle
26.0 ·market 4%
12%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +220%
4
BARNSNAPE BOY
J: Donagh Murphy(5) · T: Jim Boyle
7.5 ·market 13%
12%
13%
7.5
 -12%
5
PORT HEDLAND
J: Matthew Lloyd Slater(5) · T: Tony Carroll
12.0 ·market 8%
11%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +35%
6
VALADERO
J: Liam Wright · T: Brian Toomey
5.5 ·market 18%
11%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -40%
7
ROCK MASTER
J: Myla Coppins(5) · T: Tony Carroll
12.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
12.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -13%
8
VOODOO RAY
J: Jude Fernandes(7) · T: Gary & Josh Moore
17.0 ·market 6%
6%
6%
17.0
 +1%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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