Newmarket July 14:55 — Value Analysis

Knight Frank Suffolk Heritage Nursery Handicap Stakes

Thursday 6 August 2026

Nursery GTF 8.0f Class 5 5 runners
Model's most likely LORD RAGNAR 46% model chance · market 44%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates LORD RAGNAR top (46% chance)
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Bang on trip for it at 1m
  • ✓ Has won over 1m before
  • ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
LORD RAGNAR ★ Top Rated
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Ed Dunlop
2.2 ·market 44%
46%
44%
2.2
▲ Edge increasing
 +4%
2
EMERALD BAY
J: Darragh Keenan · T: George Scott
4.5 ·market 22%
19%
22%
4.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -16%
3
HIGH CALIBRE
J: Joe Leavy · T: Richard Hannon
4.0 ·market 25%
13%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -50%
4
PEGGYS LAD
J: Mark Winn · T: Iain Jardine
10.0 ·market 10%
12%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +18%
5
WOODHAY WAYFARER
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Tom Ward
8.5 ·market 12%
7%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -37%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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