Musselburgh 13:50 — Value Analysis

Champagne Pommery Brut Rose Handicap Stakes

Friday 7 August 2026

Other Handicap GD 9.0f Class 6 7 runners
🏁 Result: Samra Star won (SP 5.0)
Model's most likely FALCON NINE 34% model chance · market 31%
★ Best value SAMRA STAR model 23% vs market 18% · +24%
Why the model rates FALCON NINE top (34% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Samra Star, 5lb better in at the weights and better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
  • ✓ Kieran Shoemark riding well, 13% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
  • ✕ Kieran Shoemark and Iain Jardine rarely click, 0%

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
FALCON NINE ★ Top Rated
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Iain Jardine
3.2 ·market 31%
34%
31%
3.2
 +12% 2nd
2
SAMRA STAR
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Linda Perratt
5.5 ·market 18%
23%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +24% Winner
3
GEMINI MAN
J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: Iain Jardine
3.8 ·market 27%
15%
27%
3.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -44% 4th
4
MINERS GAMBLE
J: Luke Morris · T: Brian Ellison
5.5 ·market 18%
14%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -21% 3rd
5
TOY SOLDIER
J: Lexie Clarkson(7) · T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
11.0 ·market 9%
12%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +28% 7th
6
APPROACHING DAWN
J: Lauren Young(5) · T: Jim Goldie
12.0 ·market 8%
10%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +15% 5th
7
LIBERTY LOOMING
J: James Sullivan · T: Adam Nicol
51.0 ·market 2%
8%
2%
51.0
 +291% 6th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org