Thirsk 14:10 — Value Analysis

goracing.co.uk Future Stars Apprentice Classified Stakes

Friday 7 August 2026

Classified Stakes GD 6.0f Class 6 9 runners

Model's most likely TARLAC 24% model chance · market 29%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates TARLAC top (24% chance)

✓ Ideally fresh - 22 days since its last run
✕ Katie Scott's yard quiet lately, 8% in the last two months
✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	TARLAC ★ Top Rated J: Olivia Haines(3) · T: Katie Scott 3.5 ·market 29%	24%	29%	3.5	-16%
2	TICKETS J: Harry Vigors(3) · T: Patrick Neville 4.4 ·market 23%	18%	23%	4.4 ▲ Edge increasing	-22%
3	MISTER SKY BLUE J: Conor Whiteley · T: Gemma Tutty 7.0 ·market 14%	13%	14%	7.0	-11%
4	MRS TRUMP J: Liam Wright · T: Paul Midgley 5.5 ·market 18%	12%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-34%
5	DRISH SAMPHIRE J: Cian Horgan · T: Lawrence Mullaney 41.0 ·market 2%	10%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+290%
6	GOLDEN PROSPERITY J: Jake Dickson(3) · T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood 12.0 ·market 8%	8%	8%	12.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+2%
7	HURSTWOOD J: Ethan Tindall · T: Peter Niven 6.0 ·market 17%	7%	17%	6.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-56%
8	NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND J: Taryn Langley · T: Ruth Carr 24.5 ·market 4%	5%	4%	24.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+29%
9	THANK THE LORD J: Shay Farmer · T: W H Harrison 41.0 ·market 2%	5%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+85%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org