Musselburgh 14:20 — Value Analysis

British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Friday 7 August 2026

Novice Stakes GD 5.0f Class 2 5 runners
Model's most likely FAITH IN FLORENCE 41% model chance · market 34%
★ Best value FAITH IN FLORENCE model 41% vs market 34% · +20%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: MINSTER MAN is the market favourite (2.8) but the model rates it only 14% vs the market's 36% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates FAITH IN FLORENCE top (41% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Barnaby Rudge, 6lb better in at the weights and better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Kieran Shoemark riding well, 13% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
FAITH IN FLORENCE ★ Top Rated
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker
2.9 ·market 34%
41%
34%
2.9
▲ Edge increasing
 +20%
2
BARNABY RUDGE
J: Daniel Muscutt · T: James Fanshawe
3.0 ·market 33%
23%
33%
3.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -31%
3
MINSTER MAN
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Robert Cowell
2.8 ·market 36%
14%
36%
2.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -62%
4
SOD HALL LANE
J: Zak Wheatley · T: Declan Carroll
16.0 ·market 6%
10%
6%
16.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +54%
5
MY MATE FITZ
J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan
34.0 ·market 3%
7%
3%
34.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +154%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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