Newmarket July 13:55 — Value Analysis
Newsells Park Stud Sweet Solera Stakes (Group 3)
Saturday 8 August 2026
⚠ Vulnerable favourite: GRACEFUL SONG is the market favourite (2.6) but the model rates it only 19% vs the market's 39% — it may be beatable.
- ✓ Well treated on official ratings
- ✓ Was well-in against its last field on ratings
- ✓ Handles the good to firm well
- ✕ Consistency has been a worry
- ✕ David Egan cold lately, 8% in the fortnight
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
NUIT DECLAIR
★ Top Rated
3.2
·market 31%
|
21% |
31% |
3.2
|
-33% | |
| 2 |
GRACEFUL SONG
2.6
·market 39%
|
19% |
39% |
2.6
|
-53% | |
| 3 |
CHINA IN YOUR HAND
9.5
·market 11%
|
14% |
11% |
9.5
|
+35% | |
| 4 |
HARLEQUIN SKY
8.8
·market 11%
|
13% |
11% |
8.8
|
+12% | |
| 5 |
MARTINET
6.8
·market 15%
|
11% |
15% |
6.8
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-28% | |
| 6 |
SUGAR YES PLEASE
15.0
·market 7%
|
9% |
7% |
15.0
|
+32% | |
| 7 |
TIE A NAVYRIBBON
67.0
·market 1%
|
8% |
1% |
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+419%market disagrees |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org